“Warige" Climate Prediction with Sasak Community

PARTIAL Sasak people turned out to have a separate system in predicting things. Including predictions of climate. Local wisdom is named, warige. Climate forecasting system that is evolving for a long time among the Sasak Lombok community. In view of the Sasak people, the majority Muslims, this warige reference in any calendar month Qomariyah use. Explained researcher at the Center for Water Resources and Agro-climate Research (PUSLISDA) University of Mataram (UNRAM), Ir. Ismail Yasin, MSc. using Warige system can be known when the rain come down heavy, normal and a little rain.

Determination Warige assessed by Sasak and grow in the community after the study has a high degree of accuracy. "Accuracy reaches 70 percent," he said. The way to know it by looking at the rain intensity at the date when tumbuk (over-head sun). The date on which the sun as a source of heat in the earth just above the head. When checked scientifically, it turns out in months of ad on the island of Lombok, especially mashed occurred on October 15. Where, Lombok is located in south latitude 8035I each year was always going mashed dated October 15.

Counting warige torrential monsoon intensity, moderate and normal visits to date on the moon qamariyah mashed. Known, between AD and Qamariyah month is different, if it was mashed Qamariyah 6 months, the rainfall is quite high. Furthermore, if there are mashed Qamariyah 16th month, the normal rainfall, about 1500 mm3 per year. Finally, if mashed occurred on 26 then low rainfall. This is evident, as noted in the year 2009 and then, there has been mashed so it looks relatively low rainfall. With this warige, the nature of the rain. Are known, the party or do not smell much nyale obtained.

"Our parents actually have very ideology these climatic conditions," said Ismail. To forecast with warige, continued during the last two years are always right. Meanwhile, if the climate anomalies associated with Ismail denied if current climate conditions look bad and distorted. Changes that occur when this is only the form of climate variations that occurred in recent years. Indeed, is not free from the influence of global warming. There was el nino (dry season) and la nina (wet season).

Where, if anomalies occur in decades, while this only happens when the time change on rainfall. Within warige, the rain continued to fall until next November. "2010 is quite normal rainfall," he added. Agustus-September to October is usually dry, but for year 2010 is still found in the rain. Dry season, predicted to occur next year 2011.

Prof. Ir. H. Mansur Ma'shum PhD., Adding local wisdom (local wisdom) that existed at the Sasak people mostly taken from old books. There is book 12 stars, tajul grandiose and several other reference books. Delivered, the determination of this season in every area there. In Java, known as Maco mongso. Only the former rector Unram recognized this, local wisdom began to be forgotten.

For his part, tried to lift the local wisdom into scientific studies. Results of scientific studies with the local wisdom that can be collaborated and there is no disagreement. No conflict was recognized analyst of Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), Aldi Rifaldy. Lack of local wisdom that only the data. Differences with BMKG for the support of data and technology.